By Martin W. Bowman
Книга B-24 Liberator. B-24 Liberator. Книги Вооружение Автор: Martin W.Bowman Формат: pdf Размер: 78,3 Язык: Английский0 (голосов: zero) Оценка:Книга об основном тяжелом бомбардировщике американских ВВС времен Второй мировой войны -B-24 Liberator. Создание, развитие модели, модификации, применение. Фото.
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44 Another criticism of Pape's thesis was advanced by Barry Watts, who suggests that Pape's methodology is inappropriate for the subject that he studies, military coercion. Further, he believes that Pape does not correctly apply the theory that he advances to the case studies under consideration and thus obtains biased and invalid results. Much of Watts' discussion exists as a general caution to any social scientist seeking to create a valid predictive theory that attempts to anticipate or explain the outcome of very complex, multifaceted events.
Air campaigns in recent years, are not represented. Modern technologies for determining target sets, finding and mapping targets for air strikes, and then evaluating the success of the strikes in a timely fashion have substantially improved the ability of military leaders and policy makers to integrate the use of air power with given strategic objectives. Any effort to target decisionmaking processes with air power, however, requires a fundamental understanding of not only the characteristics of the targeted actor, but of the structure and dynamics of organizations more generally, so that predictions can be made regarding the behavior of organizations subjected to the stress of a coercive air campaign.
However, the potential for air power to impact targeted decision-making processes precisely and predictably enough to move beyond coercion to actual control has not yet been clearly proven or established, and policy makers must guard against overconfidence in such expectations when embarking on air campaigns or employment of airborne strike assets. Predicting the success of air power as a coercive instrument has proved to be particularly difficult. Unplanned secondary and ancillary effects abound, and the law of unintended consequences seems ever present when air power strategies are employed.